Will Chess Be Solved? The Latest Research on the Ultimate Game Theory Question

Introduction

Chess, with its 64 squares and 32 pieces, has fascinated mathematicians, computer scientists, and players for centuries. One of the most profound questions in game theory is: Will chess ever be solved? That is, will we one day know the perfect move in every possible position, determining whether the game is a forced win for White, a forced win for Black, or an inevitable draw with best play?

Despite the rise of superhuman chess engines like Stockfish and AlphaZero, chess remains unsolved—and may stay that way for a very long time. This article explores the latest research on chess solvability, the computational challenges, and whether quantum computing or AI breakthroughs could finally crack the game.

1. What Does It Mean to “Solve” Chess?

Three Levels of Solving a Game

1. Ultra-weakly solved (theoretical outcome known):

   • Example: Tic-tac-toe is a forced draw with perfect play.

2. Weakly solved (strategy known from the start position):

   • Example: Checkers was weakly solved in 2007—it’s a draw with best play.

3. Strongly solved (perfect play known for all possible positions):

   • Example: Connect Four is strongly solved—White can force a win.

Chess is currently none of these, though some endgame tablebases (like the 7-piece Syzygy) have strongly solved small subsets of positions.

Why Chess is Harder Than Checkers or Go

• Branching factor: Chess averages ~35 legal moves per turn (vs. ~10 in checkers).

• Game length: A chess game can last 100+ moves, leading to ~10^120 possible positions (Shannon’s number).

• Positional complexity: Unlike Go, where territory is measurable, chess involves long-term strategic planning.

2. The Computational Challenge: Why Chess is (Probably) Unsolvable

Brute-Force is Impossible

• Even with today’s fastest supercomputers, calculating all possible chess positions would take longer than the age of the universe.

• Estimate: A computer checking 1 billion positions per second would need 10^95 years to solve chess.

Endgame Tablebases: A Partial Solution

• 7-piece tablebases exist, storing every possible position with up to 7 pieces.

• These reveal forced wins or draws, but scaling up to 32 pieces is unrealistic due to memory constraints.

Quantum Computing: A Future Hope?

• Quantum computers could theoretically solve chess by evaluating positions in parallel.

• Problem: Current quantum systems (like IBM’s 433-qubit Osprey) are nowhere near powerful enough.

• Expert opinion: Most researchers believe quantum chess-solving is centuries away, if possible at all.

3. Could AI “Functionally” Solve Chess Without Full Calculation?

AlphaZero’s Approach: Intuition Over Brute Force

• Unlike Stockfish, AlphaZero uses neural networks to evaluate positions more like a human.

• It doesn’t “solve” chess but plays at a superhuman level, suggesting perfect play may be approximated.

Will AI Find a Forced Win or Draw?

• No evidence yet. Even AlphaZero loses occasionally, meaning chess’s true outcome remains unknown.

• Some theorists argue that White’s first-move advantage (estimated at ~0.3 pawns) could lead to a forced draw with perfect play.

The “Horizon Effect” Problem

• Engines can’t see infinitely ahead—they stop calculating at a certain depth.

• Some positions (like certain fortress draws) are invisible to even the strongest AI.

4. Latest Research: What Do Mathematicians Say?

John Tromp’s Work on Chess State Space

• Computer scientist John Tromp calculated 4.5 x 10^44 legal chess positions (far fewer than Shannon’s estimate).

• Still, this is too vast for exhaustive solving.

The “50-Move Rule” Loophole

• If no capture or pawn move occurs in 50 moves, a draw can be claimed.

• Some endgames require up to 549 moves to win (discovered via tablebases), complicating solving efforts.

Chess Variants Are Being Solved

• 8×8 Checkers: Solved (draw).

• Maharajah Chess (Amazon Chess): Some variants are weakly solved.

• Standard chess? Still a mystery.

5. Will Chess Ever Be Solved? The Verdict

Most Experts Say No (Within Our Lifetimes)

• The computational requirements are too extreme.

• Even with Moore’s Law, we lack the hardware to tackle 10^120 positions.

But… Partial Solutions Will Improve

• Bigger tablebases: 8- or 9-piece endgame solutions may emerge.

• Better AI: Neural networks could “functionally” solve chess by playing near-perfectly, even if not mathematically proven.

Final Thought: Does Solving Chess Ruin the Game?

If chess were solved, would it lose its magic? Unlike checkers (still played despite being “solved”), chess thrives on human creativity and imperfection—which may be why we’re better off not knowing the answer.

Conclusion: The Unsolvable Beauty of Chess

Chess remains one of the deepest unsolved problems in mathematics and AI. While we may never fully solve it, the quest to understand its limits continues to drive innovation in computer science and game theory. For now, the game’s infinite complexity ensures its enduring appeal—keeping players, engines, and researchers endlessly fascinated.